Harris’s Rise and the Democratic Landscape
In the two and a half months since Joe Biden suspended his reelection campaign, Kamala Harris has rapidly ascended to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. She has headlined the party’s most enthusiastic convention since 2008, raised hundreds of millions in campaign donations, and surpassed Biden’s earlier polling numbers. However, despite these notable achievements, anxiety is growing among Democrats regarding Harris’s electoral prospects.
Stagnation Concerns
As Election Day approaches, there is an increasing sense that Harris’s campaign may be stagnating. Familiar debates have resurfaced about where and how to allocate precious campaign resources. While Harris’s advisers often publicly downplay the significance of the polls, they admit that the race remains extremely close. Despite extensive campaigning in battleground states and a debate designed to rejuvenate support, little progress has been made in shifting the polling dynamics. Notably, Harris is the first major party presidential nominee in six decades not to have won a competitive primary, which has left some party members with lingering doubts about her candidacy. A source close to the campaign remarked, “People are nervous. They know the polls are tight,” recalling the apprehensions reminiscent of the 2016 election cycle.
Target Voter Dilemma
Further complicating efforts to rally the Democratic base is the struggle to define who that base should be. Some party members advocate for winning over disenchanted Republican moderates who have soured on Donald Trump, a strategy with uncertain returns on investment. On the other hand, others emphasize the need to mobilize men and men of color, a demographic that has become a point of concern among Harris campaign officials.
Moreover, suburban women, who have shifted toward Democrats during the Trump administration, are seen as a crucial demographic. However, there are doubts about whether their support will be sufficient to counterbalance Trump’s strengths among male voters. Additionally, there are growing concerns about engaging Hispanic voters, as well as Arab Americans and younger voters who are frustrated with U.S. policies regarding Israel, Gaza, and the broader region as tensions escalate.
The Slim Margins of Victory
The narrow margins in key battleground states further heighten the nervous energy within the campaign. Harris’s team identifies the seven most competitive states as either tied or within the margin of error, creating a climate of uncertainty. “They’re all narrow paths. They’re all tight paths,” a senior Democrat close to the campaign stated, emphasizing the precarious nature of their electoral strategy.
Recent Polling Developments
Recent polling data is likely to exacerbate these concerns. New surveys from DailyOn indicate that Harris is entrenched in a tight race across vital Blue Wall states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Specifically, her 6-point lead in Pennsylvania has dwindled to just 3 points when third-party candidates are factored in. In Michigan, what was once a 5-point edge has evaporated, leaving Trump at 50% and Harris at 47%. The situation in Wisconsin mirrors this trend, with Trump garnering 48% support among likely voters compared to Harris’s 46%.
Conclusion: A Race for the Ages
As Democrats gear up for what is shaping up to be a highly competitive election cycle, the growing anxiety surrounding Harris’s campaign underscores the challenges that lie ahead. With the polling landscape shifting and various voter demographics to consider, it remains to be seen how the campaign will navigate these complexities. The stakes are high, and every decision could prove critical as Election Day draws near.
A New Wave of Anxiety in 2024
Behind the Scenes: Strategic Planning for 2024
As the 2024 election approaches, the Harris campaign is actively strategizing behind the scenes to regain lost ground and avoid repeating the mistakes of previous campaigns. By comparing the shortcomings of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with the successful tactics employed during Biden’s candidacy in 2020, campaign officials are formulating a comprehensive approach to engage voters effectively.
Targeting Red and Rural Areas
One key component of this strategy involves increased visits to red and rural counties that voted for Trump in 2020. The goal is to cut into the Republican’s advantages while easing the pressure on liberal strongholds, predominantly located in major cities. Notably, Cambria County in Pennsylvania has emerged as a focal point for these efforts. Biden managed to outperform Clinton in this area, turning her 44,000-vote deficit into a nearly 82,000-vote statewide margin of victory.
Brendan McPhillips, a senior adviser for Harris in Pennsylvania, explained the importance of this strategy: “We showed up, fought a little bit, and got 31%. That difference is replicated across the region in other counties, contributing to that 80,000 margin. So, it worked.” Last month, Harris returned to Cambria—an area that Trump won by double digits in 2020—in an effort to make inroads and win over voters who previously supported the former president.
Learning from Past Mistakes
In analyzing their approach, campaign officials have recognized past missteps. Dan Kanninen, the director for battleground states, reflected on the lessons learned: “Cycle after cycle, we became too focused on analytics and data, which led us to target an increasingly narrow segment of the electorate.” He cautioned that this strategy ultimately proved detrimental. “What we’ve figured out, both as a party and specifically in this campaign, is that showing up is the fundamental thing to do in politics,” he emphasized.
Harris’s Underdog Mentality
Harris has been vocal in countering any perceptions of overconfidence. She consistently describes herself as the “underdog” in this race. During a late September fundraiser, she asserted, “This is a margin-of-error race. We are the underdog. I am running like the underdog because I am the underdog in this race. The baton is now in our hands.”
This mindset reflects her awareness of the challenges ahead and her commitment to connecting with voters across the political spectrum.
Recent Momentum and Campaign Infrastructure
Amid these challenges, the Harris campaign has experienced a surge of energy since her nomination. Campaign officials point to substantial crowd sizes at her events, robust fundraising efforts, and a strong volunteer base as indicators of growing enthusiasm. The groundwork laid over the years—dating back to when the Biden campaign was active—has contributed to a solid campaign infrastructure.
One adviser remarked, “It’s exponentially better than Trump’s operation.” This acknowledgment highlights the campaign’s preparedness, but they also recognize that field operations are just one crucial piece of a larger puzzle.
Navigating Election Season Uncertainties
As with any presidential campaign, October brings its own set of surprises—unexpected events that can dramatically shift the electoral landscape. Alongside these surprises, there are recurring themes of concern among Democrats, particularly when faced with tight polling numbers and the challenge of managing a fragile coalition.
Historically, Democratic nominees have faced significant hurdles, having lost the two closest presidential elections in the past 25 years despite winning the popular vote. In 2016, a mix of minor yet widespread polling errors, compounded by disbelief that Trump could defeat Clinton, fostered a lasting sense of paranoia within the party.
Current Sentiments and Evolving Concerns
“It’s a different set of nerves than we saw four years ago,” noted Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Now, concerns about the polls are baked in. There’s a growing sense that while there is excitement for a candidate on the Democratic side, she is not particularly battle-tested at the top of the ticket.”
Murray pointed out that the excitement surrounding Harris’s nomination reinvigorated the race, bringing it back to a more level playing field. However, as the reality of a tight contest set in, many voters became increasingly anxious when events that might have historically shifted the dynamics failed to have any significant impact.
Take, for example, the presidential debate in September. “By any objective measure, in a different time, that kind of difference in debate performance would have produced at least a temporary five-point bump in the polls for Harris,” Murray explained. “But we had to squint our eyes to find a small, one-point shift.”
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
As the 2024 election looms, the Harris campaign is acutely aware of the complex dynamics at play. With a commitment to learning from past mistakes, a focus on grassroots engagement, and an understanding of the current electoral landscape, the campaign is navigating a challenging path. The combination of excitement and anxiety among Democrats illustrates the high stakes involved, and how the coming weeks will be critical in shaping the outcome of this pivotal election.
Returning to the Core Supporters
Building Support Among Key Demographics
Before ascending to the top of the ticket, Kamala Harris dedicated months to strengthening support among Black men for Joe Biden. However, advisers within the campaign recognize that there is still significant work to be done.
The Urgency of Voter Engagement
“The concern,” a source close to the Harris team stated, “is that voter apathy could win out. This is a tight race, and none of us want to experience the feelings we had in 2016.” Therefore, it is crucial to mobilize Black and Hispanic men, as the source emphasized, “We need to ensure that they don’t just sit on the couch. If they don’t vote at all, that effectively becomes a vote for Trump.”
Rebuilding the Biden Coalition
In response to the challenge of recreating the multiracial Biden coalition from 2020, campaign operatives and allies are working diligently to connect with voters in more personal and intimate settings. This effort includes ramping up engagement with Black voters, whose support for Biden has diminished, as well as union households, another demographic where Biden outperformed Harris in 2020.
Local Engagement in Milwaukee
For instance, last month in Milwaukee, Harris’s brother-in-law, Anthony West, attended a local NAACP meeting—an organization known for its influential Democratic state activists. In a recording of the meeting obtained by DailyOn, he made a compelling case for Harris.
“We have to decide what we want our country to look like and what we choose,” West urged. “And we have to fight for it.”
Addressing Accessibility Concerns
Moreover, one persistent issue discussed at the meeting was how to make the campaign more accessible to lower-income communities. West urged attendees to remember their roots: “Remember, you were raised by a strong Black woman who took care of you, fed you, and gave you opportunities in life.” He encouraged those present to carry this message home.
Furthermore, West highlighted Harris’s commitment to criminal justice reform, citing initiatives like “ban the box” and other programs she led as the district attorney in San Francisco. “That’s the philosophy she would bring to the White House and to the Department of Justice,” he affirmed.
Mobilizing Black Communities
In addition to these efforts, on Tuesday, the country’s largest political action committee dedicated to supporting Black candidates, Collective PAC, launched a new initiative called “Vote to Live.” This campaign pledges to invest $4 million to mobilize Black communities.
The funding will support several initiatives, including 100,000 Uber vouchers for round-trip transport during early voting, registering 50,000 Black voters, onboarding “voting ambassadors” in targeted communities, launching a bus tour in partnership with labor and the NAACP, and hosting homecoming events at Historically Black Colleges and Universities.
Challenges in Georgia
Despite these efforts, a Democratic organizer in Georgia expressed frustration over the lack of resources for pro-Harris groups in the state, particularly regarding TV and mail campaigns. “When Black voters are inundated with anti-Harris messaging, face-to-face conversations become even more critical,” the operative explained.
With right-wing disinformation targeting what operatives refer to as low-information communities, there is an urgent need for more direct outreach. “Those are incredibly nuanced conversations that need to happen, and there’s no quick ad that can convey that depth,” the operative added.
Focusing on Core Issues
Furthermore, Cedric Richmond, a former Louisiana representative and a Harris surrogate, emphasized that the campaign is focused on promoting its core issues. “For people concerned about Social Security and Medicare, we will highlight that Trump wants to cut them. For those worried about mass shootings, we will communicate our commitment to banning assault rifles,” he stated.
Engaging Latino Voters
Moreover, campaign surrogates have acknowledged the need to strengthen support among Latino voters as Election Day approaches. “There’s always a concern that we want to do more,” said New York Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat.
In recent weeks, both Harris and Trump have ramped up digital strategies aimed at reaching Latino voters. However, some political strategists warn that online engagement does not guarantee voter turnout.
The Disconnect Between Online and Offline Efforts
“There’s a disconnect,” noted Chuck Rocha, a veteran Democratic strategist specializing in Latino outreach. “What’s happening online versus on-the-ground efforts can feel like two completely different worlds.”
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
As the election nears, the Harris campaign faces the challenge of solidifying support among crucial demographics. By focusing on personal engagement, addressing accessibility issues, and emphasizing core issues, the campaign aims to mobilize voters and build a coalition that reflects the diversity of the electorate.
